Glassnode has reported that the current on-chain indicators show that the Bitcoin bull market could be entering its later stages. A decline in the number of Bitcoin whales was noticed, even if there was consistent accumulation from wallets that hold 1 BTC or less starting with March 2018.
“The persistent accumulation of smallholders demonstrates a willingness to HODL through volatility with the trend unbroken from mid-2018 through the chaos of 2020,” the report noted.
By comparison, whale addresses that hold more than 100 BTC have remained rather flat – they currently hold around 62.6% of the supply, with an increase of only 0.87% since March 2020.
Glassnode referenced its “Reserve Risk” metric and claims that a BTC “wealth transfer” from long-term holders to new buyers is now taking place.
The company also mentioned that the bull markets usually follow a similar wealth transfer path in three different phases; this way, one can estimate in what part of the cycle we’re in. Peak hodl phases represent inflection points, in which the largest proportion of long-term holder (LTH) owned coins bring in a profit.
“Similar to the Reserve Risk metric, these studies suggest conditions are similar to the second half or later stages of a bull market. There remains a larger relative portion of supply still held by LTHs having only spent 9% since the assumed Peak HODL point.”
Chinese mining pool BTC.TOP CEO Jiang Zhuoer also believes that the bull market may be over by September 2021. He made these claims two days ago and based them on the general economic recovery following the COVID-19 vaccine rollout and a possible waning interest in crypto assets if large companies such as Tesla or MicroStrategy don’t continue to add Bitcoin to their treasury reserves.
Furthermore, Timothy Peterson, an investment manager, has also commented on the decline in whales, declaring: “such moves are often but not always associated with bear markets.” He also predicted that the price of Bitcoin could fall to as low as $25,000.
Source: cointelegraph.com